Real Estate Funds Rally: Expectations of Change in 2026 Boost the Market Amid Lula’s Declining Popularity #Brazil

The Brazilian real estate funds market has faced significant challenges in recent months, influenced by economic and political factors. The Selic rate, which serves as the country's interest rate benchmark, was recently raised by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) by 1 percentage point, reaching 14.25% per year. This is the fifth consecutive increase, bringing the rate to its highest level since August 2016.

At the same time, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity has shown signs of decline. According to a survey conducted by PoderData between March 15 and 17, 53% of respondents disapprove of the government, while 41% approve. Another survey by Genial/Quaest revealed that 64% of respondents consider the rising food prices to be the main reason for Lula’s loss of popularity.

These combined factors have created expectations in the financial market regarding possible political changes in the 2026 elections. The prospect of a power shift in Brasília is seen by some investors as an opportunity for the recovery of real estate funds. The hope is that new economic policies may emerge, aiming to stabilize inflation and reduce interest rates, creating a more favorable environment for investments in the real estate sector.

However, it is important to highlight that the real estate funds market is sensitive to various factors, including fiscal policies, political stability, and global macroeconomic conditions. While the possibility of political changes may bring optimism, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor economic and political developments in the coming months to make informed decisions.